Confidence attaches to an individual dependency claim, not automatically to a complete pathway.
Strongly supported claims have clearly specified relata and relation types, an appropriate material or argumentative basis, converging evidence, explicit limits and scope, stated failure conditions, and survival against the strongest established explanation.
Provisional claims are sufficiently clear and supported to guide inquiry, but important evidential, relational, material, or comparative questions remain unresolved.
Speculative claims identify intelligible possibilities whose current support is insufficient for provisional acceptance. They must be presented as research hypotheses rather than established conclusions.
Confidence is distinct from the audit verdict. A claim may be retained, qualified, retyped, rejected, redescriptive, redundant, or judged to provide no explanatory gain.
Support for one arrow does not validate neighbouring arrows or the pathway as a whole.